Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
